Uncertainty Assessments and Decision-making

The subject of this book is uncertainty assessments §as a basis for decision-making and improved §regularity management. The book and PhD thesis is an §attempt to contribute to 1) a further development of §the predictive, Bayesian approach to risk and §uncertainty, with respect to both the implication of §applying the approach and to increase its area of §application, and 2) to increase the understanding §and application of regularity analyses. §§Proposals to frameworks for characterizing §regularity, expressing uncertainty, making use of §expert judgments and qualifying technology have been §developed, and it is shown how a unified and §holistic approach for various perspectives on §regularity management is suitable for the §application of this doctorial dissertation, i.e. the §petroleum industry. §The book consists of two parts. Part I provides an §introduction to the scientific fundation. Part II §consists of five papers covering various aspects of §regularity analyses and decision-making under §uncertainty. §§The work was given the "PhD of the year" award by §the Society of Petroleum Engineers in Stavanger, §Norway.